bigdaddy01
I think many of us, old and new, are pondering this same question.
Steve mentioned "depends on the company", and he is aboslutely right.
But it also depends on you, your passions, your strengths and your dislikes.
Not everyone becomes a manager, and not everyone who becomes a manager is happy. Being a consultant has a lot of freedom but requires a lot of drive, a good client base, transferable skills beyond technical and a wealth of experience.
And lastly, it depends on the industry. For example, IBM has a catchy TV ad.
A manager asks the local computer geek whats new. The computer geek starts off saying we just installed a SAN disk storage, and other technical mubo-jumbo. The manager's eyes' galze over and you can see he was sorry he asked. But then the geek says and it will save you hundreds of thousands of dollars. The manager perks up and starts the to pay attention. The screen fades into the next scene where about a dozen people are sitting on the floor listening to the geek "and people will be able to restore their own files without the help of IT..."
I think this ad is very prophetic. Managers jump at the idea of saving money, and the computer savants druel at the thought of the new technology. But how will a company save the $100,000's? By reducing IT costs.
I believe a few high level, higly skilled IT people will be running the show, and the many of the other IT jobs will become low end, low skill, low pay, mundane jobs.
Already this trend is happening. More and more software is "self-healing". Support services are being shifted over seas. Services are being leveraged and out sourced. These seem to be good things for business.
But for IT, it may mean transition and and uncertainty for some.
My thoughts are...
- You have to be smart -- make commen sense decisions.
- It helps to be intelligent.
- Yo have to be dynamic, and be willing to change.
- Improve upon your transferable skill set.
- Techical people have to maintain their skills, and to be aware of the new technologies.
- With leveraged services and centralized services, you have to be good, and you have to find the opportunity to join the development / lead team or teams. Otherwise you will find your self taking more and more direction from others in another state or provence or another country.
- Managers may have a bit more stability since they are managing deliverables, assets and people. But they have to make sure they are working in an area that will endure.
Lastly, you have to put on the rosey-red glasses and look to the future and try to predict what the next wave will be. Then start to plan on how you can be on that wave.
Having said all this, the transition will not happen all at once. Smaller companies may continue to do business the same old way; or they may move faster than the larger companies. People will still need their Access database applications to work, their web sites maintained, etc. But gradually, these too will change.
A good example of this is payroll. Not to long ago, small to mid size companies would use a single user or small LAN user payroll application. Now, much of the payroll is outsourced to a bank or other party.
I wish I knew what the future holds -- a lot of excitement I am sure, but how to prepare to for the transitions will be challenging.
Which beings me back to your question, and the three suggestions I have provided so far -- depends on the comapny, you and the trends in the industry.
Lastly, finding the right mix of your needs, your skill set and a company will depend a bit on luck.