I think you should write a COM object that installs with the page... maybe a browser helper object.
Most users won't think twice before Clicking OK on the download dialog box it throws up so you don't have to worry about that "certificate" nonsense. Besides, it is expensive to do it that way.
So anyway, you convice your users to load your code onto their system. The code can call the Windows API to put itself to sleep for 5 minutes.
Then, when it wakes up, it can examine the IE windows and look for a ? in the querystring!