×
INTELLIGENT WORK FORUMS
FOR COMPUTER PROFESSIONALS

Log In

Come Join Us!

Are you a
Computer / IT professional?
Join Tek-Tips Forums!
  • Talk With Other Members
  • Be Notified Of Responses
    To Your Posts
  • Keyword Search
  • One-Click Access To Your
    Favorite Forums
  • Automated Signatures
    On Your Posts
  • Best Of All, It's Free!
  • Students Click Here

*Tek-Tips's functionality depends on members receiving e-mail. By joining you are opting in to receive e-mail.

Posting Guidelines

Promoting, selling, recruiting, coursework and thesis posting is forbidden.

Students Click Here

Chances of a 'century storm'

Chances of a 'century storm'

Chances of a 'century storm'

(OP)
Alan Greenspan has claimed that the current crisis was due to a 'once in a century' credit storm.  A lot of people would disagree, but this isn't the place to discuss that.

What I'd like to know is that if an event is 'once in a century' in the sense of 1 per 100 chance per year, what are the chances of 25 years clear?  My first guess was 75% but that's probably wrong.  You could have two in a year, that would be 1 in 10,000.  Or two in a 25-year period, I'm not sure of the odds.  But there could also be long clear periods, just by chance.

------------------------------
An old man tiger who lives in the UK  

RE: Chances of a 'century storm'

I'm going to answer the actual questions asked, but instead provide a link to a more general answer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100-year_flood

You can plug in the numbers and find out.  I know that my Home Owners Insurance will be a little higher because i live in a "500 year" flood plain.

RE: Chances of a 'century storm'

Each year, you have a 0.99 chance of not having it happen.  Thus, for 25 years, you have 0.99 ^ 25 chance of it being all clear.
 

RE: Chances of a 'century storm'

Yes KornGeeek,

if you take the "once in a century" probability as it's layed out in the wiki article about floods, that's correct.

The wiki article tells about the 100-year flood, that it has approximately a 63.4% chance of occurring in any 100-year period, not a 100 percent chance of occurring.

The current crisis is felt as a real 100% chance of occuring, because it happend in the 1930ies too, but in fact we don't have that long experience with money and banking, than we have with water... Also this is based on human behaviour and stupidity, not on physics laws like gravity. And even though the water has no own free will and only follows laws like gravity, it's unpredictable, as it's also depending on wheater, for which the same applies.

It's man made and therfore I think it's totally wrong to think in probabilities. We have a case of some bankers having had shortsighted thoughts about the working of some of their products. This happens all the time.

Bye, Olaf.

Red Flag This Post

Please let us know here why this post is inappropriate. Reasons such as off-topic, duplicates, flames, illegal, vulgar, or students posting their homework.

Red Flag Submitted

Thank you for helping keep Tek-Tips Forums free from inappropriate posts.
The Tek-Tips staff will check this out and take appropriate action.

Reply To This Thread

Posting in the Tek-Tips forums is a member-only feature.

Click Here to join Tek-Tips and talk with other members! Already a Member? Login

Close Box

Join Tek-Tips® Today!

Join your peers on the Internet's largest technical computer professional community.
It's easy to join and it's free.

Here's Why Members Love Tek-Tips Forums:

Register now while it's still free!

Already a member? Close this window and log in.

Join Us             Close